Chickpea prices are forecasted to increase due to the global market’s tight supply, including the global industry’s position where production and marketing are not yet completely regained. Although importers hardly get an adequate volume of chickpeas globally, most acres are forecasted to be seeded with other crops this spring instead of Kabuli chickpeas.
In the recent Virtual National Pulses Seminar, India reports an estimated 350,000 MT of Kabuli chickpeas in PAN India for the seeding season in Oct-Nov 2021. Although India is one of the top producers of pulses, the total yields decline by 25-30% this year for chickpeas, desi chickpeas, lentils, and wheat.
Kabuli chickpeas prices are increasing and have now been overpriced in the Indian market, which by August 2021, it is expected to rise at USD300-350. The price increase is mainly attributed to the country’s lesser carry-over and the pandemic’s consistent lockdown again in the first week of April.
India’s export volume of Kabuli chickpeas is expected to slide this year, especially from the Sudan market, owing to the hiked prices and the pandemic effect. Even a few analysts forecasted the country’s local consumption to be lower due to this effect.
Argentina, on the other hand, estimates production of 50,000 MT of chickpeas for the crop year 2021-22. However, the projected number will decrease in case the weather condition doesn’t recover from last year’s water insufficiency; otherwise, around 10 to 20 ha will not be seeded. If this happens, the USA and Canada would have a higher chance of supplying chickpeas but with a lower price of USD800-850 CMF.
Like India, Russia is in a tight supply this crop year, more so that it has no carryover for the end of the year. The country only estimates around 264,000 MT of chickpeas with prices ranging from USD750-800. Due to the tight supply, some farmers are changing their cropland from chickpeas to oilseeds due to the increasing global export demands.
In Turkey, farmers are also having a tough time anticipating for the weather conditions to get better. In fact, the country only estimated a yearly volume of 135,000 MT, a lesser production and lower carry-in stocks from the previous years that will result in lower yields. The government may interfere if the condition gets worse and the prices escalate. Currently, in 2 months, there is a 30% increase in prices at USD800-875, which is forecasted to increase further in the upcoming “Shia Festival”.
Mexico forecasts a 140,000 MT production at the end of the crop year, with 25,000 MT already exported in March and April. The country’s drought condition, especially in Sinaloa Land, resulted in the increase of chickpea production in place of white corn, although farmers seeded mainly 42-44 chickpea sizes with lesser volume of super jumbo size. The increase of chickpeas supply follows the increase in prices due to transportation and export equipment facilities, like the current container crisis in California. Accordingly, big financial companies export and stock Mexico produce for one or two years that led to the country’s big loss for the past two years. If this happens again, prices might escalate at USD600 like last October and November, which is forecasted to rise at a maximum of USD800. To avoid such a price hike, the country is now using small ports for exports to at least maintain the current price of USD400.
USA and Canada
Like other countries’ fear, the USA estimates only 192,000 MT of chickpeas due to drought in some areas. The demand for chickpeas is slowly building up after a decrease in the pet food market, although domestic consumption may still fall due to the pandemic impact. Canada, on the other hand, estimates 214,000 MT, a 30% fall from the previous forecast year, with a carryout of 81,000 MT for the end year 2021-22. The prices for both US and Canada are forecasted at USD900-1,000.
Desi Chickpeas Global Outlook
The desi chickpeas market is significantly affected by the pandemic not only to India but other suppliers. Prices are dependent on the supply and demand, with governments controlling them. India’s production is 15% lesser than the previous years due to the dry weather conditions and sudden rains that affect the crop yields. While India’s carry out is at 50,000 to 60,000 tons, its import produce is at 300,000 tons.
Pakistan forecasts production of 200,000 – 225,000 tons at the end of the crop year but will continue to import at least until the next crop season. Myanmar’s export and import market are stable as their domestic harvest and consumption are fairly good, and their export volume to India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan is on average. Tanzania, Ethiopia, and Australia’s production and consumption are also stable due to good weather and average yields.