Global Food Prices at Six-Year High Are Estimated to Keep Increasing

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization Index averaged 97.9 points in 2020, a 3.1% increase from 95 points in 2019, and the highest since it averaged 98 points in 2017.

In particular, the six-year high came amid drought that threatened crops across South America and increased demand from China.

Prices are expected to keep rising in 2021, and consumers whose incomes have been impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic are especially hard hit. Protectionist measures are also propping up markets, with Argentinian farmers planning a protest strike after the government suspended corn-export licenses, while wheat giant Russia will curb grain exports from mid-February to tame food inflation.

Fair trade organizations have been trying to help farmers in many countries improve their production and find direct, better-paying fair markets for their goods. For the most part, however, small-scale producers have been left to fend for themselves. Some societies have begun to invest more in small-scale producers however government policies the world over tend to favor industrial-scale, chemical-dependent production of raw commodity crops at the expense of small-scale farmers and organic growers who produce real, nourishing food.

For too long, government funding around the world have primarily benefited agribusiness and large, industrial-scale farm operations that aren’t growing food people actually eat. Instead, they’re growing genetically modified crops like corn, soybeans and cotton that get turned into ingredients for animal feed, fuel and highly processed food — at a high cost to health and the environment.

The inequities were far greater when it came to supporting organic farming and small-scale farmers and helping expand local and regional markets. Over those same three years, the U.S. government alone spent just $159 million on organic agriculture and $300 million to build and strengthen local and regional food systems.

This overview can help the politicians of the world develop strategies that will hold back price increases.

Agricultural markets

In historical terms, global agricultural prices have always been subject to strong fluctuations. This is related to the short-term characteristics of the agricultural markets where supply is heavily dependent on the weather, and demand is relatively stable. In recent years, agricultural prices have increased substantially. The prices for other raw materials such as crude oil have increased even more. Now that both agricultural prices and the price of crude oil are rising, the prices of processed and unprocessed foods are higher.

Population growth

In order to predict the prices of agricultural products in the future, it is important to take a look at supply and demand. The demand for agricultural products is primarily determined by the growth in the population and prosperity. For the coming decade, a decrease in population growth and a robust economic growth are expected. This means an increase in the demand for agricultural products. In addition, the non-food demand is growing because biomass is replacing fossil raw materials as a fuel source. The supply of agricultural products depends on the area of land used for agriculture and the yield per hectare. During the coming decade, a slight increase in the area of land used for agriculture and productivity are expected.

Food prices

The high agricultural prices are attributable to a combination of factors. A distinction may be made between the effects of supply, demand, policy and other factors. Over the past several years, the supply of raw materials has dropped as a result of poor harvests caused by extreme weather conditions. Global stocks have also reached unprecedented low levels. The high oil prices are also affecting the food prices. The demand for raw materials has risen worldwide due to the developing economies. The interest in biofuels has also increased the demand for grains and oilseed.

Protectionist measures

In response to the rising food prices, some countries are taking protectionist measures to limit the food price increases for their own consumers. On the global market, this often means a further increase in prices. The exchange rate of the U.S. dollar also has an impact. Global prices are quoted in dollars and the value of the dollar has dropped against most other currencies. The price increases in dollars were even higher as a result. It is difficult to estimate the influence of speculation.

Global market

The best remedy for high prices is high prices. Although this may sound contradictory, high food prices ensure that farmers and other market players will start responding. This will in turn cause the prices to drop again. The rise of biofuels ensures a higher demand for raw materials and will thus serve to drive prices up. A rising oil price will also result in a higher food price. This is not only due to the increase in the costs of energy, transport and chemicals, but also because biofuels are becoming more competitive.

Production capacity in low-wage countries

Consumers in low-wage countries are affected the most by high food prices due to the high percentage of their income that they spend on food. For this reason, it is necessary to increase food aid in the short term, and to improve production capacity in low-wage countries in the long term. This will allow them to contribute to generating income on the global market as well.